The Election & The Exchange Rate

**Don Tomas** · 05-06-2004, 06:24 PM

Just curious if any have an opinion of what (if any) effect the elections will have on the Exchange rate.

I have been watching the DR1 thread and saw $47.20 at Banco Santo Cruz today. And it has been rising steadily over the past weeks.

I remember during my week down there in April it stayed constant at 43 plus change, Judy in Sosua told me it will stay that way until the elections. Well even with her connections/dealings I guess she doesn't know everything.

I also saw a post on WSG that said:

BTW, has anyone been monitoring the election? I understand that Hipolito Mejia is trailing by better than 20% of likely voters to former president Leonel Fernandez. My question is, how is Mejia and his cronies and his considerable assets and connections going to swallow this one? I hope Fernandez wins and I hope the country maintains order afterwards.

The peso is about 47 RDP to 1 USD right now, I think a Fernandez victory will knock it down under 40-1 again. Still good for us travelers and at least a little better for the Dominican people.

Yahoo Finance has 45.30 listed and my bank is holding at 42 since Monday.

So does anyone else have an opinion, just thinking about positioning myself before my trip in July.

Thanks

**Vincent Vega** · 05-06-2004, 07:18 PM

If I was you, I would not invest in DR peso futures. Ultimately the value of the currency will depend on the country's balance of payments, not on who is in power in Santo Domingo. This means that it depends on the productivity of those industries that earn foreign currency for the DR, and those that export products grown or made in the DR. In World War II, when there was a great shortage of food in Britain, due to the ravages of the U-Boats in the Battle of the Atlantic, U.K. residents were urged to grow their own produce with the slogan "Dig for Britain". If I was el Presidente, I would be urging the chicas to step up productivity, with more happy hours and orgies, thus getting the most out of each visitor. Perhaps a slogan like "chupa por la Republica" would give them a sense of civic pride and responsibility.

**Don Tomas** · 05-06-2004, 09:15 PM

I wasn't looking for investments, more like changing in ~$500 at the bank, 45 at the bank might be my breaking point.

I am headed down for 9 days in July.

**nomad** · 05-06-2004, 11:03 PM

I predict we see 50RD/USD and then a stabilization at 40 when Hipo is voted out.

**Don Tomas** · 05-15-2004, 04:49 PM

Well I wish I knew the answer earlier and wouldn't have been worrying about the exchange rate. My bank never did hit 45-1. :x

I just read a post Jimmy put up from the Sosuanews site.

People fear that if the present government is defeated then this
will lead to a disaster after 16 May (election day). Especially for
supplies of electricity, petrol and cooking gas. They also fear that
the peso will decrease in value even more. The country will barely
be governed until August when the new government is inaugurated.

So what does all this mean for the visiting tourist? Not that much!
Most of the hotels have already stocked up on extra petrol so the
necessary facilities will be available. And if the peso drops any
further, in the short term this will only make things cheaper for
the tourist.

I didn't realize the current government would have 3 months to pillage the country before leaving. It sucks for the people of the DR but it will be good for us.

**gdogg** · 05-16-2004, 03:23 PM

When in August will the new regime take over? Will the peso then immediately stabilize? I'm asking because I'm due to get there August 16th, and would love to get the most "bang for the buck"!

**Jimmydr** · 05-16-2004, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by gdogg

When in August will the new regime take over? Will the peso then immediately stabilize? I'm asking because I'm due to get there August 16th, and would love to get the most "bang for the buck"!

Aug 15 is the date! :P

**Jimmydr** · 05-16-2004, 05:26 PM

I heard a few guys were killed today over the election, more chicas for the rest of us, I am sure.

**Cosmo Kramer** · 05-16-2004, 05:27 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americ...eut/index.html

**Gutter Meat** · 05-17-2004, 04:54 AM

It will be interesting to see which way the exchange rate goes. I don't think the exchange rate will ever go back to what it was in 98 when it was 17 pesos to $1.00. I here after about 6 months of Fernandez being in power it may bottom out at 35 pesos to $1.00.

**Jimmydr** · 05-17-2004, 07:57 AM

Originally Posted by Gutter Meat

It will be interesting to see which way the exchange rate goes. I don't think the exchange rate will ever go back to what it was in 98 when it was 17 pesos to $1.00. I here after about 6 months of Fernandez being in power it may bottom out at 35 pesos to $1.00.

The doubled minimum wages so I too think it will be around 35-40 to the Dollar.

**nomad** · 05-30-2004, 01:09 AM

There is very little chance for the Peso to ever go below 40.
The entire Dominican monetary system is built on tiers of defaulting bonds. Every time an interest payment is due, what happens?.....They issue new bonds yielding 40% They will just keep on printing more pesos.

**Coxslinger** · 07-11-2004, 12:24 AM

Someone may have already shared this link, but here is a great way to check exchange rates for most currency....

http://www.oanda.com/convert/cheatsheet

Coxslinger

JD · 07-11-2004, 12:53 AM

Good link. I think I used a similar one months ago that was posted
on DR1 but I did not use the cheatsheet at that time.

Happy Hunting,

JD

It hasn't even been one month since my last trip and I am
desperate to get back.

**Mr Chocha Man** · 07-11-2004, 03:03 AM

Originally Posted by Frans Hals

If I was el Presidente, I would be urging the chicas to step up productivity, with more happy hours and orgies, thus getting the most out of each visitor. Perhaps a slogan like "chupa por la Republica" would give them a sense of civic pride and responsibility.

This is brilliant.

**BrooklynBeas** · 07-12-2004, 08:48 AM

Oanda.com is always a peso to 3 pesos off to the dollar then Judys... it used to be about 2 pesos less then what Judy would give you now last trip was about 2 pesos more then Judy gave...

809-571-3171 use this phone # for the most accurate info ... its Judy's Casa de Cambio...

XE.com - another currency site.. BrooklynBeas

**gdogg** · 07-12-2004, 01:27 PM

:cry: :cry:

I just checked XE...the rate is now 43.15. This can't be good. I thought it was supposed to be going up for a while.

**BrooklynBeas** · 07-12-2004, 01:43 PM

without having any insider info ... these are my feelings...

the rate will drop a little in the hopes that Leonel will help this whole country... in due time when they realize that he will not really help the country... the rate will then go up again ... and every whore will be charging 5000 pesos for short stay ... which by then will probably be $20

Of course i think that rate is a lil exagerated but thats my feelings and my story and i will stick by it until im proven wrong... SOsua Beas