Fidel Castro: Fighting for life

[remyman41]

I just want to be able to go, without fear of repercussions

[Mr Bambino]

Papi rico,


So what is your educated guess on what will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? I have some friends that told me Castro is already dead. They claim to have this from a very good source. The point I am trying to make here is allot of people make claims and the truth is no one really knows. Is he dead, is he alive? Will Raul keep the country the same, will Raul be overthrown? I would like to know your opinion on what will happen. From your 8 trips and your educated guess, what do you think Cuba will be like after the old man dies?



Mr Bambino

[Kevy]

This article will give you an idea of the hurdles ahead.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/16431730.htm

[PapiQueRico]

There are so many areas to deal with in a response to your question that a complete answer would be like a doctoral thesis. Kevy's article brings up the issue of frozen assets. There is also the issue of reparations for those who lost money and property to the Castro government, both Cubans and Americans, both individuals and corporations.

As to Castro being alive or dead right now, who knows?
It doesn't seem to be all that important. It seems certain, that after all of the mistaken predictions of his demise, he is at or very near the end.

Publicly the transition of power has already taken place, with Raul formally in power. In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again! This is important because as part of the solution to the economic crises the government started building the infrastructure for tourism something they had shunned until then. A lot of the companies were joint projects between Cuban government ministries and foreign companies. They also set up such partnerships in the areas of mining, oil exploration and biochemical/medical reearch. As in China, the military was heavily involved in these businesses. In addition to being Fidel's little brother this has also given Raul a lot of economic and political power. As head of the military he had a lot of patronage jobs to give out in these new industries and a lot of money.

Because of this Raul is probably in pretty good shape for the mean time. Although earlier he had the rep of the real tough guy, and was feared by the Cubans, he more recently has been known as more moderate in terms of the economy, favoring some loosening of the constraints on small business and cottage industry.

My sense of the general desires of the Cuban people is that they don't want drastic change. They seem to want a little more latitude in terms of doing business and civil liberties. What they don't want is to give up the advances they have had in medical care and education in return for western style elections. They see how the Haitians and the Jamaicans and the Dominicans live, and they prefer what they have.

Of course Raul is also in his mid 70's so it won't be long until the subject of his successor will come up.

The big wild card in what will happen in Cuba after Fidel is the response of the US. Will Washington continue to demand reparations, elections and the end of socialism before normalization? Or will the death of Castro be used to declare victory, save face, and move towards a more compromising position? These decisions will have at least as mush effect on Cuba's direction as anything they decide in Havana.

Bambino, this is a very thin answer to your question. The issues are just too vast to answer well in this type of forum. I just wanted to get across the idea that unlike many people here think, the Cuban people are not waiting with baited breath for Fidel to kick so that they can run out and overthrow their government. They do not want to become a commonwealth of the US, or to be too similar to their Caribbean neighbors. They know that here are a lot of severe problems with their system, but they don't see the model of Haiti or the DR as a solution.

[Kevy]

There are so many areas to deal with in a response to your question that a complete answer would be like a doctoral thesis. Kevy's article brings up the issue of frozen assets. There is also the issue of reparations for those who lost money and property to the Castro government, both Cubans and Americans, both individuals and corporations.

As to Castro being alive or dead right now, who knows?
It doesn't seem to be all that important. It seems certain, that after all of the mistaken predictions of his demise, he is at or very near the end.

Publicly the transition of power has already taken place, with Raul formally in power. In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again! This is important because as part of the solution to the economic crises the government started building the infrastructure for tourism something they had shunned until then. A lot of the companies were joint projects between Cuban government ministries and foreign companies. They also set up such partnerships in the areas of mining, oil exploration and biochemical/medical reearch. As in China, the military was heavily involved in these businesses. In addition to being Fidel's little brother this has also given Raul a lot of economic and political power. As head of the military he had a lot of patronage jobs to give out in these new industries and a lot of money.

Because of this Raul is probably in pretty good shape for the mean time. Although earlier he had the rep of the real tough guy, and was feared by the Cubans, he more recently has been known as more moderate in terms of the economy, favoring some loosening of the constraints on small business and cottage industry.

My sense of the general desires of the Cuban people is that they don't want drastic change. They seem to want a little more latitude in terms of doing business and civil liberties. What they don't want is to give up the advances they have had in medical care and education in return for western style elections. They see how the Haitians and the Jamaicans and the Dominicans live, and they prefer what they have.

Of course Raul is also in his mid 70's so it won't be long until the subject of his successor will come up.

The big wild card in what will happen in Cuba after Fidel is the response of the US. Will Washington continue to demand reparations, elections and the end of socialism before normalization? Or will the death of Castro be used to declare victory, save face, and move towards a more compromising position? These decisions will have at least as mush effect on Cuba's direction as anything they decide in Havana.

Bambino, this is a very thin answer to your question. The issues are just too vast to answer well in this type of forum. I just wanted to get across the idea that unlike many people here think, the Cuban people are not waiting with baited breath for Fidel to kick so that they can run out and overthrow their government. They do not want to become a commonwealth of the US, or to be too similar to their Caribbean neighbors. They know that here are a lot of severe problems with their system, but they don't see the model of Haiti or the DR as a solution.

Good answer Papi, plus most of the people that want great change are in Miami.

[gtown]

I think Hugo Chavez should take over.. We don't need good 'ole CUBA becoming the 51st state, and they can like actually buy baby formula off the shelves. Fuck that, might as well call it Puerto Rico at that point !!!

[gtown]

Ever heard of KISS ??? Keep It Simple Stoooooopid ???

As in, give power to Fidel's bro, easy, done, right on !!

I'm lookin' at El Salvador Feb 15-22, anyone in ???????

Speak now, y'all wanna experience new thangs, ISOCS In Search Of Chicas In El Salvador, lets do this shit, NUFF TALK !

Lemmie hear ya HOLLA !!!

[Gladiator]

In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again!

That was apparently the Golden Age of mongering in Cuba, early to mid 90’s, which sadly I missed…

Some described it as the Thailand of the Caribbean at the time.

I once met a guy who had been there in that period and I asked him what was the asking price for TLN, he said the asking price was generally just a cheap meal, they were hungry.

By the way, good post PQR!

[scoochamenz1]

i hope hillary wins and congress stays democratic cause then ther'll be flights to havana every hour on the hour!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PapiQueRico]

That was apparently the Golden Age of mongering in Cuba, early to mid 90’s, which sadly I missed…

Some described it as the Thailand of the Caribbean at the time.

I once met a guy who had been there in that period and I asked him what was the asking price for TLN, he said the asking price was generally just a cheap meal, they were hungry.

By the way, good post PQR!

The way it was described to me was it started out being that the chicas would go out with tourists just because it gave them access to going out in a manner they could never afford. Nicer restaurants, better dance places. Of course they wend home with the guys to fuck, what else would you do after a night out????
Then the stupid tourists with their fucked up view of sex and sexuality started giving the girls gifts or a little money to help out in return for the sex, as if sex isn't a mutual thing. Well that gennie jumped out of the bottle real quick, if you know what I mean grrrrrrrr!

[Kevy]

Lm's buddy when we were in Havana described teh Malecon as a couple of miles of hookers. Now it is deserted.

[Gladiator]

In the case of Fidel, no news is good news!

[SJG]

I think that if there is going to be change, it will be slow. Raul is not going to just give up the reins of power. And I don't think things are as bad in Cuba now as we are lead to believe. As long as the people have jobs and enough food to eat, there will be no revolution. Hispanics in general and Cubans specifically are very proud people. The won't tear down their government on the promise of American dollars.

Besides, it would be quite stupid of us to destablize another government just so we can force our own brand of democracy on them. We have many years and many more billions of dollars commited in Iraq, where we destroyed an otherwise stable government, we can't afford to do something like that in Cuba.

If there is any change at all, it will start with an ease in trade restrictions (I can't wait until Cuban Cigars are legal again). Slowly, as investors become more confident, this will evolve into American investment in Cuba. And why not? Cuba has a stable government and a burgeoning tourist industry which will only be strenghend by a normalization in relations with the US. In ten to fifteen years, Cuba will be changed, similar to the change that has happened in China. It's a shame that our politicians in the US had to wait until Castro is dead before they could open up negotiations and find a way to normalize relations.

[Don Tomas]

fuck the transition of power. once Castro is gone Cuba will become the next Peurto Rico.

Castro's brother now in charge very little will change with the government except our government might be more willing to open travel and trade restrictions.

Castros brother can do 3 things. 1) Keep shit as it is. 2) Become a nice guy an kiss the White Houses ass or 3) Become a bigger dick than Fidel to show his power. I would say #3 until the USA backs down and kisses his ass.

So what is your educated guess on what will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? I have some friends that told me Castro is already dead. They claim to have this from a very good source...

I think that if there is going to be change, it will be slow. Raul is not going to just give up the reins of power. And I don't think things are as bad in Cuba now as we are lead to believe. As long as the people have jobs and enough food to eat, there will be no revolution. Hispanics in general and Cubans specifically are very proud people. The won't tear down their government on the promise of American dollars.
...
If there is any change at all, it will start with an ease in trade restrictions (I can't wait until Cuban Cigars are legal again). Slowly, as investors become more confident, this will evolve into American investment in Cuba. And why not? Cuba has a stable government and a burgeoning tourist industry which will only be strenghend by a normalization in relations with the US. In ten to fifteen years, Cuba will be changed, similar to the change that has happened in China. It's a shame that our politicians in the US had to wait until Castro is dead before they could open up negotiations and find a way to normalize relations.

First to all the people who said "Castro's brother" or when "Castro" is dead. I am sure you meant Fidel Castro, because Raul Castro is not "Castro's brother" but rather Fidel's brother.

As for things being better after Fidel's death, please note Fidel was never a Communist or even a Socialist to begin with, he just wanted to overthrow a dictator. Che, Raul, & the US are the ones who steered him that way. I would be way more scared of Raul then Fidel!

For those who are now saying how could the US have made Fidel a commie????? Well learn your history, soon after Fidel took power he started distancing himself from Che & Raul and other socalists/communists stating he just wanted to free Cuba, refusing to embrace communism. About 6 months after seizing power he needed money so he wanted to do the same as the government before him did for $$$$, he wanted to sell sugar to the US. Well the business interests in Cuba that fled during the revolution that had supported the dictator, Batista, and the business interests that were caught by their own greed lobbied the US to say NO! Well Cuba in need of money turned to Raul's good friend, Soviet KGB agent Nikolao Leonov who put the brothers in touch with the Soviet Union who happily agreed to buy the sugar even though they didn't need it. The Bay of Pigs fiasco 2 years later just cemmented the relationship! Only if the US had said yes to the sugar and told the lobbyists to shutup who knows how things could have been......

As for speculation that Fidel is dead, I doubt it seriously, there has been too many outside factors from Chavez to Spanish doctors that say otherwise.

As for the Cuban cigar comment, don't hold your breath, the market is so large already that the production and quality has already been affected, opening it to the US will just make it worse.

[ilikenyacional]

Anyway, Fidel dead or alive I will be there next friday to enjoy the best Cuba has to offer !

[Gladiator]

Besides, it would be quite stupid of us to destablize another government just so we can force our own brand of democracy on them. We have many years and many more billions of dollars commited in Iraq, where we destroyed an otherwise stable government, we can't afford to do something like that in Cuba.

Wise words...

Over 600,000 dead in Iraq since the occupation started and still counting...

I attribute that huge massacre to Bush and his cronies (Blair, etc), rather than to American, British people, etc., many of whom opposed the war from the very beginning.

[LM]

Anyway, Fidel dead or alive I will be there next friday to enjoy the best Cuba has to offer !

And I'll be there tomorrow along with WhyNotMe.....maybe we will be there to be a part of history, I'm curious how the people on the island will react to his passing...

[Maximus]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070129/...HNlYwNtZW5ld3M-

[PapiQueRico]

I wonder if the people planning to party realise how flacid it is to have waited almost fifty years for the guy to basically die of old age, and then declare victory.

[LM]

Jon Stewart does humor on Castro...
Castro did get fitted with an artificial anus...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYWjjOhN4Yk