They DON'T know ... they CAN'T know. They can only make an educated guess -- well, there's a high-pressure ridge over there, so it'll probably go away from it; a trough leading this way, it's likely to follow it -- wait, it went that-a-way ... It's chaos.
"Spaghetti model" is a good way to describe it, though. The forces that steer a hurricane first one way, then another, are about as random as the noodles in a boiling pot of spaghetti. And there are people who say, "The science is settled" ... seriously?
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