NewsWhore
05-19-2008, 05:50 PM
An analysis of the success or failure of clientilistic practices in the 2008 political campaigns shows that while clientilism may have added many votes at a very high cost, it also could have led to the parties losing more votes on other fronts.
President Leonel Fernandez's re-election bid, based in great part on a very costly and highly touted spree of securing alliances through clientelistic practices in the final months of campaigning, did bring in thousands of new supporters. The final numbers, nevertheless, may suggest the practices could have alienated thousands of others.
Fernandez received 2,199,734 (53.83%) of the vote in the 2008 presidential election. The total was only 6.5% or 135,863 more than the 2,063,871 votes (57.1%) he received in the 2004 presidential election.
Minority parties that backed Fernandez's candidacy with followers lured by jobs in government and other clientelistic practices contributed 214,430 votes. These were the BIS (51,759 votes), PUN (12,903 votes), PTD (29,788 votes), PQDC (39,717 votes), UDC (39,319 votes), PPC (20,730 votes) and PRLD (20,214 votes), for the total of 214,430 votes. Two other minority parties, the APD, headed by long time PLD-supporting politician Max Puig (adding 79,950 votes), and the FNP party, led by very active senator Pelegrin Castillo (adding 58,432 votes), are excluded from the numbers of minority parties for this analysis because they have traditionally supported the PLD candidacy.
On the other hand, hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Fernandez in 2004 could have been among the 286,890 additional voters who abstained in the 2008 election compared to the 2004 election. Abstention in 2008 was 29%, 2% up from the 27% rate in 2004. In 2008, 1,650,743 eligible voters did not turn out.
There were also 395,323 new voters in the 2008 election, including a majority of first time voters in the youngest age group, which polls said was most likely to vote for Fernandez.
The Miguel Vargas (PRD) campaign was also marked by handouts. But supporters were less optimistic about getting government jobs as international polling organizations consistently showed him lagging behind in the polls. Nonetheless Vargas, who has been highly criticized for alleged corrupt business practices including during his time as minister of Public Works, was able to attract 438,138 more votes in 2004, again probably luring back many who had voted for Fernandez in 2004 as well as some new voters, for a 36% increase. Miguel Vargas received 1,654,066 votes (40.48%) compared to 1,215,928 votes for Hipolito Mejia when he sought re-election in 2004 in the wake of the worst economic and banking crisis ever to shake the DR.
The PRSC, implementing the most openly clientelistic campaign of all, fared the worst. There has been a progressive disintegration of the party. PRSC members have been ready to migrate to the PLD, openly accepting offers of jobs and other perks in return for their support. PRSC presidential candidate Amable Aristy received 187,645 votes (4.59%). The PRSC candidacy received 312,493 votes in the 2004 election, for 8.5% of the total vote then. Even PRSC dissident and presidential candidate in the 2004 election, Eduardo Estrella, who ran on the PRSD ticket of Hatuey de Camps, a former PRD party president and today PRD dissident, failed to attract the once majority PRSC vote and received just 19,309 votes (0.47%) nationwide.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#11)
President Leonel Fernandez's re-election bid, based in great part on a very costly and highly touted spree of securing alliances through clientelistic practices in the final months of campaigning, did bring in thousands of new supporters. The final numbers, nevertheless, may suggest the practices could have alienated thousands of others.
Fernandez received 2,199,734 (53.83%) of the vote in the 2008 presidential election. The total was only 6.5% or 135,863 more than the 2,063,871 votes (57.1%) he received in the 2004 presidential election.
Minority parties that backed Fernandez's candidacy with followers lured by jobs in government and other clientelistic practices contributed 214,430 votes. These were the BIS (51,759 votes), PUN (12,903 votes), PTD (29,788 votes), PQDC (39,717 votes), UDC (39,319 votes), PPC (20,730 votes) and PRLD (20,214 votes), for the total of 214,430 votes. Two other minority parties, the APD, headed by long time PLD-supporting politician Max Puig (adding 79,950 votes), and the FNP party, led by very active senator Pelegrin Castillo (adding 58,432 votes), are excluded from the numbers of minority parties for this analysis because they have traditionally supported the PLD candidacy.
On the other hand, hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Fernandez in 2004 could have been among the 286,890 additional voters who abstained in the 2008 election compared to the 2004 election. Abstention in 2008 was 29%, 2% up from the 27% rate in 2004. In 2008, 1,650,743 eligible voters did not turn out.
There were also 395,323 new voters in the 2008 election, including a majority of first time voters in the youngest age group, which polls said was most likely to vote for Fernandez.
The Miguel Vargas (PRD) campaign was also marked by handouts. But supporters were less optimistic about getting government jobs as international polling organizations consistently showed him lagging behind in the polls. Nonetheless Vargas, who has been highly criticized for alleged corrupt business practices including during his time as minister of Public Works, was able to attract 438,138 more votes in 2004, again probably luring back many who had voted for Fernandez in 2004 as well as some new voters, for a 36% increase. Miguel Vargas received 1,654,066 votes (40.48%) compared to 1,215,928 votes for Hipolito Mejia when he sought re-election in 2004 in the wake of the worst economic and banking crisis ever to shake the DR.
The PRSC, implementing the most openly clientelistic campaign of all, fared the worst. There has been a progressive disintegration of the party. PRSC members have been ready to migrate to the PLD, openly accepting offers of jobs and other perks in return for their support. PRSC presidential candidate Amable Aristy received 187,645 votes (4.59%). The PRSC candidacy received 312,493 votes in the 2004 election, for 8.5% of the total vote then. Even PRSC dissident and presidential candidate in the 2004 election, Eduardo Estrella, who ran on the PRSD ticket of Hatuey de Camps, a former PRD party president and today PRD dissident, failed to attract the once majority PRSC vote and received just 19,309 votes (0.47%) nationwide.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#11)