NewsWhore
01-15-2009, 02:20 PM
Economist, diplomat and economic historian Bernardo Vega focuses on the correlation between economic crises and politics in the Americas in his latest column in Clave newspaper. He makes the point, nevertheless, that during the big international seminar on development and the financial crisis held in Casa de Campo in December, only one person, OAS Secretary General Jose Manuel Insulza, even talked about politics.
Vega said that he began to think about the 1929 Depression and the "lost decade" of the 1980s. He pointed out that by 1931, barely 15 months after the Wall Street crash, seven coups d'etat had taken place in Latin America, the first being the one that brought Rafael Trujillo to power in the Dominican Republic. In 1930 exports fell by 25% in relation to 1929, imports fell by 30%, the government's tax income by 30% and budget spending fell by 50%.
In Latin America, coups in Bolivia, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Guatemala and Panama followed shortly thereafter. According to Vega, coups are no longer in style (knock on wood) in modern day Latin America but economic declines are reflected in elections. During the 1980-1986 period (the so-called "lost decade"), in fifteen elections in Latin America, the opposition won all fifteen, including Joaquin Balaguer's victory in 1986. What this says is, according to the economist, that governments are not capable of convincing their people that their economic problems are the result of external factors and not the fault of the party in power.
Between 1982 and 1985, 18 countries in Latin America devalued their currencies, in the Dominican case by 117%, and only Panama, a dollar economy and Haiti did not devalue their currencies. The recent US election victory by Barack Obama is owed, in large part, to the recession that began in September. There are already disturbances in Greece and Thailand because of the crisis.
Several Latin American countries are due to hold elections this year, and it will be interesting to see what role the current economic crisis will play. A total of seven presidential elections and three congressional elections will take place in El Salvador, Venezuela, Haiti, Panama, Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#8)
Vega said that he began to think about the 1929 Depression and the "lost decade" of the 1980s. He pointed out that by 1931, barely 15 months after the Wall Street crash, seven coups d'etat had taken place in Latin America, the first being the one that brought Rafael Trujillo to power in the Dominican Republic. In 1930 exports fell by 25% in relation to 1929, imports fell by 30%, the government's tax income by 30% and budget spending fell by 50%.
In Latin America, coups in Bolivia, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Guatemala and Panama followed shortly thereafter. According to Vega, coups are no longer in style (knock on wood) in modern day Latin America but economic declines are reflected in elections. During the 1980-1986 period (the so-called "lost decade"), in fifteen elections in Latin America, the opposition won all fifteen, including Joaquin Balaguer's victory in 1986. What this says is, according to the economist, that governments are not capable of convincing their people that their economic problems are the result of external factors and not the fault of the party in power.
Between 1982 and 1985, 18 countries in Latin America devalued their currencies, in the Dominican case by 117%, and only Panama, a dollar economy and Haiti did not devalue their currencies. The recent US election victory by Barack Obama is owed, in large part, to the recession that began in September. There are already disturbances in Greece and Thailand because of the crisis.
Several Latin American countries are due to hold elections this year, and it will be interesting to see what role the current economic crisis will play. A total of seven presidential elections and three congressional elections will take place in El Salvador, Venezuela, Haiti, Panama, Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#8)