Fidel Castro: Fighting for life

[Gladiator]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2006-08/11/content_662963.htm

[Kevy]

Even Chavez is saying that now too.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2007/01/19/castro-chavez.html

[Gladiator]

I wouldn't be surprised if he managed to survive and live many more years - this is one of the hardest guys on Earth.

[Hemp]

this may sound crazy but ive been told by several military buddies of mine to not be suprised if he is already dead!!! and has been for months now.

[Ram]

this may sound crazy but ive been told by several military buddies of mine to not be suprised if he is already dead!!! and has been for months now.

I was thinking that...they need time to set up the transition of power.

[Gladiator]

The rumours about his death appeared the same day he stepped down, but he resurfaced a couple of months later in new pictures accompanied by Chavez and daily papers, showing that he was still alive.

No doubt there are some groups that are very interested in spreading such rumours to create uncertainty among Cubans and speed up the transition process.

Obviously all is possible, but I won’t believe he is dead until the Cuban government formally announce it.

[Beads]

I was thinking that...they need time to set up the transition of power.

fuck the transition of power. once Castro is gone Cuba will become the next Peurto Rico.

[GokuSS]

Perhaps, or with Castro's brother now in charge very little will change with the government except our government might be more willing to open travel and trade restrictions.

[guttaman]

Perhaps, or with Castro's brother now in charge very little will change with the government except our government might be more willing to open travel and trade restrictions.

Castros brother can do 3 things. 1) Keep shit as it is. 2) Become a nice guy an kiss the White Houses ass or 3) Become a bigger dick than Fidel to show his power. I would say #3 until the USA backs down and kisses his ass.

[PapiQueRico]

fuck the transition of power. once Castro is gone Cuba will become the next Peurto Rico.


I'd be interested to hear what the other guys who have been there have to say. To me this is one of the more ignorant comments I've seen on the subject.

Even the Cubans who don't support their government are very proud of their indepenance from the US. They know the history of colonialism, and are too smart to want to return to that.

[chlen]

fuck the transition of power. once Castro is gone Cuba will become the next Peurto Rico.

I think it would rather become the next Dominican Republic:bj1: :lol:

[PapiQueRico]

I think it would rather become the next Dominican Republic:bj1: :lol:

Naw, they're already better off than the ave.rage Dominican

[Gladiator]

I agree that they will not get as politically dependant on the US as Puerto Rico, but I think their economic boom would probably place them economically closer to Puerto Rico than to the DR as they have a skilled and relatively well educated workforce, unlike the DR.

Once they get an economic development closer to that of Puerto Rico the mongering scene, obviously, will also be more similar to that of Puerto Rico as many girls will be able to make a decent living with normal jobs without the need to resort to mongers to make ends meet.

There will always be mongering there, of course, but it will be a smaller scene, more hardcore and more expensive, probably more in line with that of Puerto Rico or Mexico than with the DR’s.

[Hemp]

I agree that they will not get as politically dependant on the US as Puerto Rico, but I think their economic boom would probably place them economically closer to Puerto Rico than to the DR as they have a skilled and relatively well educated workforce, unlike the DR.

Once they get an economic development closer to that of Puerto Rico the mongering scene, obviously, will also be more similar to that of Puerto Rico as many girls will be able to make a decent living with normal jobs without the need to resort to mongers to make ends meet.

There will always be mongering there, of course, but it will be a smaller scene, more hardcore and more expensive, probably more in line with that of Puerto Rico or Mexico than with the DR’s.

its going to end up like Mexico.

[chlen]

This I 've read in the news this morning:

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers, with an eye on reports of failing health of Cuban President Fidel Castro (http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=Fidel+Castro), said they intend in the new Democratic-led Congress to seek to ease restrictions on travel and trade with the communist island..."

[Mr Bambino]

I think it is very hard for anyone to say what will happen when Castro goes. Especially people who are not Cubans. I also dont think anyone here said anything ignorant. Some say Castro is recovering, some say he is already dead. Some say when he dies things will stay the same, others say it will be totally different. Truth is we do not know. Who knows what Cuba will be like.



Mr Bambino

[blacksultan]

I was thinking that...they need time to set up the transition of power.

The need a transition of chocha so american mongers like myself can go down there and get some with no hastle.

[blacksultan]

I agree that they will not get as politically dependant on the US as Puerto Rico, but I think their economic boom would probably place them economically closer to Puerto Rico than to the DR as they have a skilled and relatively well educated workforce, unlike the DR.

Once they get an economic development closer to that of Puerto Rico the mongering scene, obviously, will also be more similar to that of Puerto Rico as many girls will be able to make a decent living with normal jobs without the need to resort to mongers to make ends meet.

There will always be mongering there, of course, but it will be a smaller scene, more hardcore and more expensive, probably more in line with that of Puerto Rico or Mexico than with the DR’s.


Cuba is a big island. I am pretty sure that there will be some "off the beaten path" places and underdeveloped beach areas where the chocha will be cheap. Yeah, the US and Miami cubans will throw alot of money into the place when trade relations are normalized but I dont think that will affect the average poor cuban chica too much unless she is connected or has a good education.

[chlen]

Once they get an economic development closer to that of Puerto Rico the mongering scene, obviously, will also be more similar to that of Puerto Rico as many girls will be able to make a decent living with normal jobs without the need to resort to mongers to make ends meet.

The good thing it's not gonna happen at once, so still we'll have a window of some years.

[PapiQueRico]

I think it is very hard for anyone to say what will happen when Castro goes. Especially people who are not Cubans. I also dont think anyone here said anything ignorant. Some say Castro is recovering, some say he is already dead. Some say when he dies things will stay the same, others say it will be totally different. Truth is we do not know. Who knows what Cuba will be like.



Mr Bambino

Of course it is difficult to predict what will happen there, even for those who live there. This could be said about any place on the planet. That said, there are educated guesses and uneducated ones. To predict that Cuba would become like Puerto Rico, a commomwealth of the United States, falls into the area of the later. Unless you are willing to also predict another invasion for the US military.

There are tremendous misunderstandings about Cuba and Cubans here in the US. This is due to the fact that most of the information we get about Cuba is from either our own government, or the Cuban American Community. Both of these sources have motivation to paint a less than accurate picture and though they should not be disregarded they should also not be taken at face value. Just the other day a customer of mine told me there will be dancing in the streets of Havana when Fidel kicks. My response was that the dancing would be in the streets of little Havana in Miami. In Havana there will be more tears than salsa.

I know, I'm not Cuban and I've only been there eight times, but I'll bet a flight to Rio with anyone who thinks I'm wrong and is willing to back up that opinion.

One thing that can be predicted is that the biggest changes in post Castro Cuba will be the result of policy changes in Washington, more so than in Havana. The Cuban people are not longing for the right to say "Would you like fries with that sir?"

[remyman41]

I just want to be able to go, without fear of repercussions

[Mr Bambino]

Papi rico,


So what is your educated guess on what will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? I have some friends that told me Castro is already dead. They claim to have this from a very good source. The point I am trying to make here is allot of people make claims and the truth is no one really knows. Is he dead, is he alive? Will Raul keep the country the same, will Raul be overthrown? I would like to know your opinion on what will happen. From your 8 trips and your educated guess, what do you think Cuba will be like after the old man dies?



Mr Bambino

[Kevy]

This article will give you an idea of the hurdles ahead.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/16431730.htm

[PapiQueRico]

There are so many areas to deal with in a response to your question that a complete answer would be like a doctoral thesis. Kevy's article brings up the issue of frozen assets. There is also the issue of reparations for those who lost money and property to the Castro government, both Cubans and Americans, both individuals and corporations.

As to Castro being alive or dead right now, who knows?
It doesn't seem to be all that important. It seems certain, that after all of the mistaken predictions of his demise, he is at or very near the end.

Publicly the transition of power has already taken place, with Raul formally in power. In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again! This is important because as part of the solution to the economic crises the government started building the infrastructure for tourism something they had shunned until then. A lot of the companies were joint projects between Cuban government ministries and foreign companies. They also set up such partnerships in the areas of mining, oil exploration and biochemical/medical reearch. As in China, the military was heavily involved in these businesses. In addition to being Fidel's little brother this has also given Raul a lot of economic and political power. As head of the military he had a lot of patronage jobs to give out in these new industries and a lot of money.

Because of this Raul is probably in pretty good shape for the mean time. Although earlier he had the rep of the real tough guy, and was feared by the Cubans, he more recently has been known as more moderate in terms of the economy, favoring some loosening of the constraints on small business and cottage industry.

My sense of the general desires of the Cuban people is that they don't want drastic change. They seem to want a little more latitude in terms of doing business and civil liberties. What they don't want is to give up the advances they have had in medical care and education in return for western style elections. They see how the Haitians and the Jamaicans and the Dominicans live, and they prefer what they have.

Of course Raul is also in his mid 70's so it won't be long until the subject of his successor will come up.

The big wild card in what will happen in Cuba after Fidel is the response of the US. Will Washington continue to demand reparations, elections and the end of socialism before normalization? Or will the death of Castro be used to declare victory, save face, and move towards a more compromising position? These decisions will have at least as mush effect on Cuba's direction as anything they decide in Havana.

Bambino, this is a very thin answer to your question. The issues are just too vast to answer well in this type of forum. I just wanted to get across the idea that unlike many people here think, the Cuban people are not waiting with baited breath for Fidel to kick so that they can run out and overthrow their government. They do not want to become a commonwealth of the US, or to be too similar to their Caribbean neighbors. They know that here are a lot of severe problems with their system, but they don't see the model of Haiti or the DR as a solution.

[Kevy]

There are so many areas to deal with in a response to your question that a complete answer would be like a doctoral thesis. Kevy's article brings up the issue of frozen assets. There is also the issue of reparations for those who lost money and property to the Castro government, both Cubans and Americans, both individuals and corporations.

As to Castro being alive or dead right now, who knows?
It doesn't seem to be all that important. It seems certain, that after all of the mistaken predictions of his demise, he is at or very near the end.

Publicly the transition of power has already taken place, with Raul formally in power. In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again! This is important because as part of the solution to the economic crises the government started building the infrastructure for tourism something they had shunned until then. A lot of the companies were joint projects between Cuban government ministries and foreign companies. They also set up such partnerships in the areas of mining, oil exploration and biochemical/medical reearch. As in China, the military was heavily involved in these businesses. In addition to being Fidel's little brother this has also given Raul a lot of economic and political power. As head of the military he had a lot of patronage jobs to give out in these new industries and a lot of money.

Because of this Raul is probably in pretty good shape for the mean time. Although earlier he had the rep of the real tough guy, and was feared by the Cubans, he more recently has been known as more moderate in terms of the economy, favoring some loosening of the constraints on small business and cottage industry.

My sense of the general desires of the Cuban people is that they don't want drastic change. They seem to want a little more latitude in terms of doing business and civil liberties. What they don't want is to give up the advances they have had in medical care and education in return for western style elections. They see how the Haitians and the Jamaicans and the Dominicans live, and they prefer what they have.

Of course Raul is also in his mid 70's so it won't be long until the subject of his successor will come up.

The big wild card in what will happen in Cuba after Fidel is the response of the US. Will Washington continue to demand reparations, elections and the end of socialism before normalization? Or will the death of Castro be used to declare victory, save face, and move towards a more compromising position? These decisions will have at least as mush effect on Cuba's direction as anything they decide in Havana.

Bambino, this is a very thin answer to your question. The issues are just too vast to answer well in this type of forum. I just wanted to get across the idea that unlike many people here think, the Cuban people are not waiting with baited breath for Fidel to kick so that they can run out and overthrow their government. They do not want to become a commonwealth of the US, or to be too similar to their Caribbean neighbors. They know that here are a lot of severe problems with their system, but they don't see the model of Haiti or the DR as a solution.


Good answer Papi, plus most of the people that want great change are in Miami.

[gtown]

I think Hugo Chavez should take over.. We don't need good 'ole CUBA becoming the 51st state, and they can like actually buy baby formula off the shelves. Fuck that, might as well call it Puerto Rico at that point !!!

[gtown]

Ever heard of KISS ??? Keep It Simple Stoooooopid ???

As in, give power to Fidel's bro, easy, done, right on !!

I'm lookin' at El Salvador Feb 15-22, anyone in ???????

Speak now, y'all wanna experience new thangs, ISOCS In Search Of Chicas In El Salvador, lets do this shit, NUFF TALK !

Lemmie hear ya HOLLA !!!

[Gladiator]

In 1989 when Gorbachev fell, Soviet aid to Cuba went from 8 or 9 Billion dollars a year down to two hundred million in one fell swoop. This brought on a time of severe austerity that Fidel called "The special period in a time of peace." How bad was it? A friend of mine told me he knew things were getting better when he started seeing cats on the street again!

That was apparently the Golden Age of mongering in Cuba, early to mid 90’s, which sadly I missed…

Some described it as the Thailand of the Caribbean at the time.

I once met a guy who had been there in that period and I asked him what was the asking price for TLN, he said the asking price was generally just a cheap meal, they were hungry.

By the way, good post PQR!

[scoochamenz1]

i hope hillary wins and congress stays democratic cause then ther'll be flights to havana every hour on the hour!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PapiQueRico]

That was apparently the Golden Age of mongering in Cuba, early to mid 90’s, which sadly I missed…

Some described it as the Thailand of the Caribbean at the time.

I once met a guy who had been there in that period and I asked him what was the asking price for TLN, he said the asking price was generally just a cheap meal, they were hungry.

By the way, good post PQR!

The way it was described to me was it started out being that the chicas would go out with tourists just because it gave them access to going out in a manner they could never afford. Nicer restaurants, better dance places. Of course they wend home with the guys to fuck, what else would you do after a night out????
Then the stupid tourists with their fucked up view of sex and sexuality started giving the girls gifts or a little money to help out in return for the sex, as if sex isn't a mutual thing. Well that gennie jumped out of the bottle real quick, if you know what I mean :mad: grrrrrrrr!

[Kevy]

Lm's buddy when we were in Havana described teh Malecon as a couple of miles of hookers. Now it is deserted.

[Gladiator]

In the case of Fidel, no news is good news! :corky:

[SJG]

I think that if there is going to be change, it will be slow. Raul is not going to just give up the reins of power. And I don't think things are as bad in Cuba now as we are lead to believe. As long as the people have jobs and enough food to eat, there will be no revolution. Hispanics in general and Cubans specifically are very proud people. The won't tear down their government on the promise of American dollars.

Besides, it would be quite stupid of us to destablize another government just so we can force our own brand of democracy on them. We have many years and many more billions of dollars commited in Iraq, where we destroyed an otherwise stable government, we can't afford to do something like that in Cuba.

If there is any change at all, it will start with an ease in trade restrictions (I can't wait until Cuban Cigars are legal again). Slowly, as investors become more confident, this will evolve into American investment in Cuba. And why not? Cuba has a stable government and a burgeoning tourist industry which will only be strenghend by a normalization in relations with the US. In ten to fifteen years, Cuba will be changed, similar to the change that has happened in China. It's a shame that our politicians in the US had to wait until Castro is dead before they could open up negotiations and find a way to normalize relations.

[Don Tomas]

fuck the transition of power. once Castro is gone Cuba will become the next Peurto Rico.


Castro's brother now in charge very little will change with the government except our government might be more willing to open travel and trade restrictions.


Castros brother can do 3 things. 1) Keep shit as it is. 2) Become a nice guy an kiss the White Houses ass or 3) Become a bigger dick than Fidel to show his power. I would say #3 until the USA backs down and kisses his ass.


So what is your educated guess on what will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? I have some friends that told me Castro is already dead. They claim to have this from a very good source...


I think that if there is going to be change, it will be slow. Raul is not going to just give up the reins of power. And I don't think things are as bad in Cuba now as we are lead to believe. As long as the people have jobs and enough food to eat, there will be no revolution. Hispanics in general and Cubans specifically are very proud people. The won't tear down their government on the promise of American dollars.
...
If there is any change at all, it will start with an ease in trade restrictions (I can't wait until Cuban Cigars are legal again). Slowly, as investors become more confident, this will evolve into American investment in Cuba. And why not? Cuba has a stable government and a burgeoning tourist industry which will only be strenghend by a normalization in relations with the US. In ten to fifteen years, Cuba will be changed, similar to the change that has happened in China. It's a shame that our politicians in the US had to wait until Castro is dead before they could open up negotiations and find a way to normalize relations.

First to all the people who said "Castro's brother" or when "Castro" is dead. I am sure you meant Fidel Castro, because Raul Castro is not "Castro's brother" but rather Fidel's brother.

As for things being better after Fidel's death, please note Fidel was never a Communist or even a Socialist to begin with, he just wanted to overthrow a dictator. Che, Raul, & the US are the ones who steered him that way. I would be way more scared of Raul then Fidel!

For those who are now saying how could the US have made Fidel a commie????? Well learn your history, soon after Fidel took power he started distancing himself from Che & Raul and other socalists/communists stating he just wanted to free Cuba, refusing to embrace communism. About 6 months after seizing power he needed money so he wanted to do the same as the government before him did for $$$$, he wanted to sell sugar to the US. Well the business interests in Cuba that fled during the revolution that had supported the dictator, Batista, and the business interests that were caught by their own greed lobbied the US to say NO! Well Cuba in need of money turned to Raul's good friend, Soviet KGB agent Nikolao Leonov who put the brothers in touch with the Soviet Union who happily agreed to buy the sugar even though they didn't need it. The Bay of Pigs fiasco 2 years later just cemmented the relationship! Only if the US had said yes to the sugar and told the lobbyists to shutup who knows how things could have been......

As for speculation that Fidel is dead, I doubt it seriously, there has been too many outside factors from Chavez to Spanish doctors that say otherwise.

As for the Cuban cigar comment, don't hold your breath, the market is so large already that the production and quality has already been affected, opening it to the US will just make it worse.

[ilikenyacional]

Anyway, Fidel dead or alive I will be there next friday to enjoy the best Cuba has to offer !

[Gladiator]

Besides, it would be quite stupid of us to destablize another government just so we can force our own brand of democracy on them. We have many years and many more billions of dollars commited in Iraq, where we destroyed an otherwise stable government, we can't afford to do something like that in Cuba.


Wise words...

Over 600,000 dead in Iraq since the occupation started and still counting...

I attribute that huge massacre to Bush and his cronies (Blair, etc), rather than to American, British people, etc., many of whom opposed the war from the very beginning.

[LM]

Anyway, Fidel dead or alive I will be there next friday to enjoy the best Cuba has to offer !

And I'll be there tomorrow along with WhyNotMe.....maybe we will be there to be a part of history, I'm curious how the people on the island will react to his passing...

[Maximus]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070129/ap_on_re_us/miami_castro_death_party;_ylt=AiJv5SHzlk4inalRNcswbF0DW7oF;_ylu=X3oDMTBhZDhxNDFzBHNlYwNtZW5ld3M-

[PapiQueRico]

I wonder if the people planning to party realise how flacid it is to have waited almost fifty years for the guy to basically die of old age, and then declare victory.

[LM]

Jon Stewart does humor on Castro...
Castro did get fitted with an artificial anus...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYWjjOhN4Yk

[GokuSS]

"First to all the people who said "Castro's brother" or when "Castro" is dead. I am sure you meant Fidel Castro, because Raul Castro is not "Castro's brother" but rather Fidel's brother."
I stand corrected; I meant Raul is in power.

I’m certainly no expert in the dealing of U.S. vs. Cuba relations, just a hopeful monger.
Perception is reality when it comes to U.S. politicians; our government has made it clear there can be no normalization until Fidel is gone. Regardless if Raul is better or worse than Fidel, I will not be surprised if our gov. claims victory, spins Raul into a good guy and pronounces a new age in Cuba and start the process to open travel and trade.

[JuanElGriego]

Miami's Cubans didn't give 2 shits about the poor in Cuba when they were living the good life under Batista and they still don't, regardless of what propaganda they try to put out ..... it's all about what they once had and hope to have again.

As for the Che-Castro issue, the urban myth in Latin American countries is Castro sold Che out to the Americans because of their differences in how things should proceed in Cuba and the "revolution" in general.

[Don Tomas]

As for the Che-Castro issue, the urban myth in Latin American countries is Castro sold Che out to the Americans because of their differences in how things should proceed in Cuba and the "revolution" in general.

Well there's a bit of truth to that statement, he didn't sell out Che and supported him in both Africa and somewhat in Bolivia. The truth part, Fidel definitely did not see eye-to-eye with Che. Actually there was several times Fidel had to prove Che was alive to the people after he left (was asked to leave) Cuba so the hardliners didn't think Fidel had killed him.

[Gladiator]

Miami's Cubans didn't give 2 shits about the poor in Cuba when they were living the good life under Batista and they still don't, regardless of what propaganda they try to put out ..... it's all about what they once had and hope to have again.

As for the Che-Castro issue, the urban myth in Latin American countries is Castro sold Che out to the Americans because of their differences in how things should proceed in Cuba and the "revolution" in general.

The Castro-Che urban myth was surely released by the CIA.

Anyway, he's resurfaced again today, if only to shut up Miami's renegades...

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2007/01/31/videos/1170208903.html

http://news.sky.com/skynews/picture_gallery/picture_gallery/0,,30000-1249667,00.html

[Don Tomas]

BTW The NFL is hoping he doesn't die before Sunday. they figure Miami would be a security nightmare if that happens.