NewsWhore
02-02-2012, 03:10 PM
A feature in today's El Caribe highlights how close many polls carried out locally have been to forecasting the winner of a presidential election, and that what most of the polls say will happen, usually does.
The feature by Oscar Quezada goes back to the 2000 election, with Hipolito Mejia (PRD) vs. Danilo Medina (PLD), the same candidates contesting the 2012 presidential election. In that election, Mejia received 49.7% of the vote, just under the 50%+1 vote needed to win the election. Nine polling companies had forecast his win.
In 2004, with the Hipolito Mejia (PRD) running against Leonel Fernandez (PLD), the leading polls were right again.
In 2008, with Miguel Vargas Maldonado (PRD) running against Leonel Fernandez (PLD), the polls again proved their worth.
Quezada concludes that in each of the elections mentioned above, the common denominator of the polls conducted prior to the elections was that the more prestigious firms projected results with a margin of error that remained, at least for the last two elections, within a range of 2 to 3 percentage points compared to the actual results. This is technically acceptable, he explains.
The 20 May presidential election campaign is due to officially open on 15 February. The most recent of the more prestigious polls is by Penn Shoen, indicating there is a technical tie, with Danilo Medina (PLD) leading with 46% of the preference to 43% of Hipolito Mejia (PRD).
www.elcaribe.com.do/2012/02/02/resultados-dan-validez-firmas-encuestadoras (http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2012/02/02/resultados-dan-validez-firmas-encuestadoras)
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#2)
The feature by Oscar Quezada goes back to the 2000 election, with Hipolito Mejia (PRD) vs. Danilo Medina (PLD), the same candidates contesting the 2012 presidential election. In that election, Mejia received 49.7% of the vote, just under the 50%+1 vote needed to win the election. Nine polling companies had forecast his win.
In 2004, with the Hipolito Mejia (PRD) running against Leonel Fernandez (PLD), the leading polls were right again.
In 2008, with Miguel Vargas Maldonado (PRD) running against Leonel Fernandez (PLD), the polls again proved their worth.
Quezada concludes that in each of the elections mentioned above, the common denominator of the polls conducted prior to the elections was that the more prestigious firms projected results with a margin of error that remained, at least for the last two elections, within a range of 2 to 3 percentage points compared to the actual results. This is technically acceptable, he explains.
The 20 May presidential election campaign is due to officially open on 15 February. The most recent of the more prestigious polls is by Penn Shoen, indicating there is a technical tie, with Danilo Medina (PLD) leading with 46% of the preference to 43% of Hipolito Mejia (PRD).
www.elcaribe.com.do/2012/02/02/resultados-dan-validez-firmas-encuestadoras (http://www.elcaribe.com.do/2012/02/02/resultados-dan-validez-firmas-encuestadoras)
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#2)