NewsWhore
03-22-2012, 06:00 PM
Polls say a second round is imminent, but the ruling PLD has played up its lead in most. Writing in Hoy, historian and economist Bernardo Vega points to a different interpretation of the recent leading polls that show Danilo Medina of the ruling PLD party leading PRD rival Hipolito Mejia. He points out that if a correct reading is done, Danilo Medina may only be leading by 0.7%. He says that the parties should concentrate on the 30% that polls are showing are still undecided.
"Four years ago, the polls that were closest to the real outcome were Gallup, Penn Schoen & Berland and Greenberg," he writes, calling attention to the recent surveys published by these companies.
"The PRD party members do not like the results, but on our understanding they should be happy. Insight in January had Danilo Medina winning by 6.1 points. In February Danilo was winning with 5.8 points according to Asisa and with 5.0 points according to Hamilton. Now, Gallup is only giving Medina an advantage of 3.5 points and Greenberg has him leading by only one point. That is, Medina's lead has declined since January and February," he writes.
"Gallup gave Medina an advantage of 3.5 points but, applying the 2.8% margin of error, Medina could be ahead by only 0.7%, which is less than a percentage point. Greenberg gives Medina an advantage of 1% but applying their margin of error of 3.5%, Hipolito Mejia could be ahead by 2.5%," he writes. Vega, nevertheless, does not consider that the contrary could be the case, and that Medina's lead could be greater still.
But in his arguments to prove that the PRD should interpret the recent polls differently, he writes:
"What has caused the reduction in Medina's lead? Speculating one could think that the excess of PLD propaganda, the arrogance, and flaunting of wealth by some leading party figures, the fear that if the PLD wins a third period democracy would weaken a lot, as well as the effects of the negative campaign, are some possible causes.
"How much will Aristy Castro, the only popular PRSC candidate add to the PRD? 2%? If there is a debate, who will win and how many votes would it add? The string of public works inaugurations, how much will they add to the PLD? Who will lose most in the continuing of the dirty campaign?" he asks.
He comments that the polls are not measuring the expatriate vote. Four years ago, 154,000 people were registered, of whom only 47% voted. The elections fell on a working day abroad. Now the number of expat Dominicans registered to vote has doubled and if instead of 47%, 70% vote because it is a Sunday, then we are looking at 230,000 votes. If they are divided, as happened in 2008 in a proportion 61-36% in favor of the PLD, that would mean the PLD adds 60,000 votes, or 1% of the total vote, which in a tight race could mean the difference, he highlights.
"The election is extremely polarized. The two leading political parties command 94% of the votes. The PRSC, which initially had 7.5%, has sought refuge in the two large parties. The six small parties barely represent overall 2.5% of the total vote. With a third force so reduced, it will be difficult for either of the two large parties to obtain the 50% needed to avoid a second round," he concludes.
"Where to find the needed votes? The undecided are barely 3% and the small parties 2.5%, but those that say they will not vote are 30%. That is the most important segment," he observes.
"What should the PLD strategy be? Leonel Fernandez could prosecute a couple of his officials who have been accused of corruption, because that would add votes. To accuse Hipolito Mejia of corruption during his government can be counterproductive if the latter responds mentioning corruption in the Fernandez governments, because there has been more corruption in those eight years, although it is true that from the government, with access to the files, it is easier to demonstrate corruption. To prosecute the PRSC members who migrated to the PRD could also be counterproductive because people would ask why now and not before. The continuing inaugurations of public works are also obviously productive.
"What should the PRD strategy be? To continue the negative campaign and take advantage of the effects of rising fuel prices", he recommends.
In his conclusions, Vega says that in such a close race, the role of observers is essential and warns that it would be terrible if the JCE were to deny accreditation to Participacion Ciudadana, with an excellent track record.
http://hoy.com.do/opiniones/2012/3/20/419740/Un-mal-fundado-pesimismo-perredeista
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#9)
"Four years ago, the polls that were closest to the real outcome were Gallup, Penn Schoen & Berland and Greenberg," he writes, calling attention to the recent surveys published by these companies.
"The PRD party members do not like the results, but on our understanding they should be happy. Insight in January had Danilo Medina winning by 6.1 points. In February Danilo was winning with 5.8 points according to Asisa and with 5.0 points according to Hamilton. Now, Gallup is only giving Medina an advantage of 3.5 points and Greenberg has him leading by only one point. That is, Medina's lead has declined since January and February," he writes.
"Gallup gave Medina an advantage of 3.5 points but, applying the 2.8% margin of error, Medina could be ahead by only 0.7%, which is less than a percentage point. Greenberg gives Medina an advantage of 1% but applying their margin of error of 3.5%, Hipolito Mejia could be ahead by 2.5%," he writes. Vega, nevertheless, does not consider that the contrary could be the case, and that Medina's lead could be greater still.
But in his arguments to prove that the PRD should interpret the recent polls differently, he writes:
"What has caused the reduction in Medina's lead? Speculating one could think that the excess of PLD propaganda, the arrogance, and flaunting of wealth by some leading party figures, the fear that if the PLD wins a third period democracy would weaken a lot, as well as the effects of the negative campaign, are some possible causes.
"How much will Aristy Castro, the only popular PRSC candidate add to the PRD? 2%? If there is a debate, who will win and how many votes would it add? The string of public works inaugurations, how much will they add to the PLD? Who will lose most in the continuing of the dirty campaign?" he asks.
He comments that the polls are not measuring the expatriate vote. Four years ago, 154,000 people were registered, of whom only 47% voted. The elections fell on a working day abroad. Now the number of expat Dominicans registered to vote has doubled and if instead of 47%, 70% vote because it is a Sunday, then we are looking at 230,000 votes. If they are divided, as happened in 2008 in a proportion 61-36% in favor of the PLD, that would mean the PLD adds 60,000 votes, or 1% of the total vote, which in a tight race could mean the difference, he highlights.
"The election is extremely polarized. The two leading political parties command 94% of the votes. The PRSC, which initially had 7.5%, has sought refuge in the two large parties. The six small parties barely represent overall 2.5% of the total vote. With a third force so reduced, it will be difficult for either of the two large parties to obtain the 50% needed to avoid a second round," he concludes.
"Where to find the needed votes? The undecided are barely 3% and the small parties 2.5%, but those that say they will not vote are 30%. That is the most important segment," he observes.
"What should the PLD strategy be? Leonel Fernandez could prosecute a couple of his officials who have been accused of corruption, because that would add votes. To accuse Hipolito Mejia of corruption during his government can be counterproductive if the latter responds mentioning corruption in the Fernandez governments, because there has been more corruption in those eight years, although it is true that from the government, with access to the files, it is easier to demonstrate corruption. To prosecute the PRSC members who migrated to the PRD could also be counterproductive because people would ask why now and not before. The continuing inaugurations of public works are also obviously productive.
"What should the PRD strategy be? To continue the negative campaign and take advantage of the effects of rising fuel prices", he recommends.
In his conclusions, Vega says that in such a close race, the role of observers is essential and warns that it would be terrible if the JCE were to deny accreditation to Participacion Ciudadana, with an excellent track record.
http://hoy.com.do/opiniones/2012/3/20/419740/Un-mal-fundado-pesimismo-perredeista
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#9)