NewsWhore
04-02-2012, 01:20 PM
The latest Greenberg-Diario Libre poll confirms that the 20 May presidential election will be tight. The poll showed former President Hipolito Mejia (PRD) leading with three points over Danilo Medina (PLD), 49% to 46%. Nevertheless, when voters were asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were to be held today, the vote was tied to 49% with 1% undecided, which would make a second round necessary.
The poll found that if a second round were held, the vote would still be tied, with 50% backing Mejia and 49% backing Medina. The second round vote is won by the majority vote.
Poll analysts say that the vote could be decided by who actually turns out to vote. It shows that 77% of the PLD voters are likely to vote, while only 69% of PRD-identified voters say they will vote in May. Greenberg says that the lower the turnout, the better for Medina.
The poll also shows that Dominicans over the age of 35 are more likely to vote. 83% of over 35s say they will vote, while only 58% people aged under 35 are likely to vote.
"No candidate has been able to take advantage over the other in this race," says Greenberg Quinland senior associate Jessica Reis, who directed the poll. "In this difficult constituency, where half wants change and the other half remains skeptical of Mejia, voter turnout may be the deciding factor," she says.
The Greenberg Quinland Rosner Research poll was conducted with 1,003 Dominicans eligible to vote from 17 to 22 March. The margin of error is estimated at 3.1-3.7%.
A previous Greenberg-Diario Libre poll, carried out from 28 February to 3 March showed Danilo Medina leading with 47% to Hipolito Mejia's 46%.
www.diariolibre.com/elecciones2012/2012/04/02/i330718_index.html (http://www.diariolibre.com/elecciones2012/2012/04/02/i330718_index.html)
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#5)
The poll found that if a second round were held, the vote would still be tied, with 50% backing Mejia and 49% backing Medina. The second round vote is won by the majority vote.
Poll analysts say that the vote could be decided by who actually turns out to vote. It shows that 77% of the PLD voters are likely to vote, while only 69% of PRD-identified voters say they will vote in May. Greenberg says that the lower the turnout, the better for Medina.
The poll also shows that Dominicans over the age of 35 are more likely to vote. 83% of over 35s say they will vote, while only 58% people aged under 35 are likely to vote.
"No candidate has been able to take advantage over the other in this race," says Greenberg Quinland senior associate Jessica Reis, who directed the poll. "In this difficult constituency, where half wants change and the other half remains skeptical of Mejia, voter turnout may be the deciding factor," she says.
The Greenberg Quinland Rosner Research poll was conducted with 1,003 Dominicans eligible to vote from 17 to 22 March. The margin of error is estimated at 3.1-3.7%.
A previous Greenberg-Diario Libre poll, carried out from 28 February to 3 March showed Danilo Medina leading with 47% to Hipolito Mejia's 46%.
www.diariolibre.com/elecciones2012/2012/04/02/i330718_index.html (http://www.diariolibre.com/elecciones2012/2012/04/02/i330718_index.html)
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#5)