NewsWhore
07-02-2007, 05:50 PM
Former manager of the Central Bank Felix Calvo says that the Viadom 2007 program of concessions will not work. He calls it an "illusion" after looking at the flow charts of vehicular traffic along the proposed toll roads. He says that in the first place it is not possible to build or rebuild these toll roads with future income coming from those that will use the roads. In the second place, it is not wise to add to the public debt in the form of guarantees to builders that propose to develop the roadways based on inflated numbers for vehicular flows. The economist says that at the end of 30 years the traffic will not have produced earnings and then the guarantees will become part of the public debt.
He was commenting on the plan promoted by the Fernandez administration that would bring in private builders to operate concessions to widen and rebuild the main highways of the country - San Francisco de Macoris, Puerto Plata, Rio San Juan, Monte Cristi, Barahona, among others.
The Dominican Republic has 48,000 square kilometers and 8 million inhabitants, and the road system was designed by the American occupation troops in 1916. Since that time nobody has broken the mold of highways and we take, according to Calvo, many illogical routes, with some regions marginalized because of the highway system, not necessarily because of their geographical location.
Calvo says that in 2001 and 2002 he analyzed vehicular flows and only three points had sufficient flow to guarantee a return on investment over thirty years, even with toll adjustments every two years. He refers to the one on the Duarte Highway at Kilometer 25, the one on the highway to San Cristobal and the one on the Las Americas Highway leading to the airport. The return on investment, according to the economist, was not enough to "go crazy" over the profits.
Since the profits would be the result of the bi-yearly adjustments, the Dominican electoral cycle produces some "anguish" amongst those that receive the concessions. The best example of this is the empty toll plaza between La Vega and Santiago that nobody dares to put into operation. And so, he urges that the Viadom 2007 plan be re-examined in the light of Dominican reality. He reiterates in the opinion piece that the estimates made by the proponents of Viadom seem to be based more on realities in other countries, than those of the Dominican Republic.
Calvo suggests that it will be cheaper over time to change the orientation of the national roadways to serve the internal markets better. He states that the Dominican highway system is based on the "Haitian threat", and is therefore obsolete. Finally he says that it might be a good idea to take a map of the country and draw a straight line between San Juan de la Maguana and the Santiago International Airport.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#3)
He was commenting on the plan promoted by the Fernandez administration that would bring in private builders to operate concessions to widen and rebuild the main highways of the country - San Francisco de Macoris, Puerto Plata, Rio San Juan, Monte Cristi, Barahona, among others.
The Dominican Republic has 48,000 square kilometers and 8 million inhabitants, and the road system was designed by the American occupation troops in 1916. Since that time nobody has broken the mold of highways and we take, according to Calvo, many illogical routes, with some regions marginalized because of the highway system, not necessarily because of their geographical location.
Calvo says that in 2001 and 2002 he analyzed vehicular flows and only three points had sufficient flow to guarantee a return on investment over thirty years, even with toll adjustments every two years. He refers to the one on the Duarte Highway at Kilometer 25, the one on the highway to San Cristobal and the one on the Las Americas Highway leading to the airport. The return on investment, according to the economist, was not enough to "go crazy" over the profits.
Since the profits would be the result of the bi-yearly adjustments, the Dominican electoral cycle produces some "anguish" amongst those that receive the concessions. The best example of this is the empty toll plaza between La Vega and Santiago that nobody dares to put into operation. And so, he urges that the Viadom 2007 plan be re-examined in the light of Dominican reality. He reiterates in the opinion piece that the estimates made by the proponents of Viadom seem to be based more on realities in other countries, than those of the Dominican Republic.
Calvo suggests that it will be cheaper over time to change the orientation of the national roadways to serve the internal markets better. He states that the Dominican highway system is based on the "Haitian threat", and is therefore obsolete. Finally he says that it might be a good idea to take a map of the country and draw a straight line between San Juan de la Maguana and the Santiago International Airport.
More... (http://www.dr1.com/index.html#3)