Election math

[NewsWhore]

Today's A.M. editorial on page two of Diario Libre was written by Adriano Miguel Tejada, who did his graduate studies in Political Science. The lawyer, who is also editor of the newspaper, says that one of the best- studied areas of political science is the impact that candidates have on electoral mathematics. This refers to the impact a new player can have on the other candidates. The Dominican electoral system requires two rounds of voting if a candidate does not obtain 50% plus one of the votes cast. Normally, this means a second round of voting where one of the two candidates will certainly obtain the required 50%. When there are three candidates in the first round, there are a lot of possible combinations, most of which will only affect the leading vote getter. Tejada observes that the third candidate usually takes votes from the second-ranking vote getter and not the first. He cites two recent elections as examples of this. Then the editorialist asks what happens when there is a fourth candidate, such as Eduardo Estrella in this case. His idea is that everything will depend on just how polarized the electorate is in any given election. For the May 2008 elections, if there is a polarization between Leonel (Fernandez) and Miguel (Vargas Maldonado), it won't matter much that the reformist votes are divided between Amable (Aristy Castro) and Eduardo (Estrella). The editor then poses the idea that "if the electorate's feeling is that they do not like any of the three main candidates, then Eduardo (Estrella) as an "outsider" could take votes from all three and create the conditions for a second round of voting. Tejada says that he puts forth the simplest combination so that readers can appreciate the impact of a candidate that is not part of "the system" in any given election. Just what role the "outsider" would play in a second round of voting would depend on whether the outsider got to the second round or whether he would have to form a coalition.

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