Late Season TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

[El Capitan]

The SAT images show it moving WEST...the weather appears to be NORTH of the center....they have had a lot of problems with rain and flooding on the North coast and in the mountains recently....the terrain is not "stable".....keep an eye to the sky, and a drink in your hand.....

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000WONT41 KNHC 101143DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OFPUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TOTHE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONECOULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTYWINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLATODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTSIN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISSYSTEM.FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ASNECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULTSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[psriches]

Damn, Knotty must be around!!! (inside joke):wink:

[El Capitan]

My ATF just e-mailed me. The General in charge of the non-existant response and recovery Dept. of Emergency is sending words of caution for the island, due to "expected" heavy rains.....if it was me, I' buy a couple bottles of rum, some mixers and find a fine bitch (and be willing to pay a little extra) to let this thing blow over.....of course to save money, you can pitch the bitch on having a dry place to stay, food and drink while La Tormenta Tropical pasas

[knotty]

Damn, Knotty must be around!!! (inside joke):wink:
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b284/Puffanick2/2uztnbs.gif

[Jimbo44]

I looked on the extended forecast for Puerta Plata from today until the next 9 days, and wind speeds do not reach more than 7 mph, so what storm r u referring to?

[El Capitan]

Look at a SAT image, it is east of PR and moving west. Here's the forecast: (again)....

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

000WONT41 KNHC 101143DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OFPUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TOTHE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONECOULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTYWINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLATODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTSIN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISSYSTEM.FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ASNECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULTSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[Jimbo44]

I see that, but thought it strange that the extended forecast I got from this site "weather" does not show it yet. I hit Sosua in 9 more days. All should be good by then I assume.

[psriches]

Sosua was sunny and hot this morning....

Santo Domingo is sunny and hot right now......

Hopefully this thing will blow over quickly!!

[Jimbo44]

Stop... it is cold, foggy, dank, and gloomy at 3 pm in NY. I am counting down tho....

[El Capitan]

I see that, but thought it strange that the extended forecast I got from this site "weather" does not show it yet. I hit Sosua in 9 more days. All should be good by then I assume.

According to my ATF in SDQ, she says they were told it will rain like a MOFO tonight and tommorrow....my concern as for those mongerals in the streets today....

By the time you get to Sou-sewer, I'll be in Jarabacoa! I feel ya on the excitement of boarding a plane to Putaville. Safe travels everyone!

[RearWindow]

In a not- so- good- sign, the storm is now named..olga. I hope it just slides south quick-like...or I'm gonna be wet and lonely :(

Moving WSW full report by NHC at 10pm EDT

[the_Jayman]

000WONT41 KNHC 101143DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OFPUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TOTHE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONECOULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHERDEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTYWINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLATODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTSIN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISSYSTEM.FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ASNECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULTSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



WHAT ? ? ? ? CAN'T HEAR YOU ! ! ! (yeah that's easy to read ! ! !)

[RearWindow]

Thanks for blinding me, you fucker ;)

Hopefully it will just slide away quickly. But we'll see. You never know with these things, and I dodged the bullet last trip.

[RearWindow]

From NOAA

"In the short-term...this
pattern is favorable for some strengthening...and the intensity
forecast calls for modest intensification before the center reaches
the Dominican Republic on Tuesday. After that...the large-scale
models forecast strong westerly vertical wind shear to develop
along the forecast track. That...combined with the likely
disruption of the circulation by passage over Hispaniola...should
cause weakening. The large-scale models forecast Olga to weaken to
an inverted trough by 36-48 hr... while the SHIPS model forecasts
dissipation in 60 hr. Based on this...the intensity forecast calls
for Olga to survive for 48 hr before dissipating."

Hoping this is right ;)

[El Capitan]

If you're on the NORTH COAST....you're gonna get blown and wet:

Subtropical Storm OLGA Public Advisory

Home (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?) Public Adv Fcst/Adv (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/110831.shtml?) Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/110842.shtml?) Wind Probs (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/110833.shtml?) Maps/Charts (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/083212.shtml?3day) Archive (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/refresh/OLGA+shtml/084402.shtml?)
000WTNT32 KNHC 110832TCPAT2BULLETINSUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 2NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007500 AM AST TUE DEC 11 2007...CENTER OF OLGA HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO......POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OFTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BAHIO DEMANZANILLO AT THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCHREMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLICFROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.INTERESTS IN HAITI SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OFOLGA...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60MILES... 95 KM...WEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 190 MILES...305 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THISGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THISTRACK THE CENTER OF OLGA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO LATER THISMORNING...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE OLGA REACHESTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER ASOLGA INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM...MAINLY TOTHE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONSIS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVERHISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES.THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ANDMUDSLIDES.REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...67.0 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100AM AST.

[El Capitan]

This will make it real EZ for those that look at "the other forecasts"...this "weather system" is a "direct hit", wind extend 200 miles out from the center....most of the weather is NORTH of the center...the current "GPS numbers" put the center coming near SDQ (18.4N 69.9W) with the crap weather on the NORTH side of the storm......no big deal, it's wind and rain...it's the fact that the DR has poor infrasructure...safe travels

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL1707W+gif/023211W_sm.gif

[Beads]

yep looks like most of the island is covered today by that thing.

[psriches]

This morning in Santo Domingo, i woke up to light to moderate rain bands sweeping across the Capital.......

I then drove up to Santiago where as of 12 noon, not so bad! Just periods of heavy rain.

[eldorob]

If you're on the NORTH COAST....you're gonna get blown and wet:.

Happens to me every time I go there...

[MegaSquirt]

This morning in Santo Domingo, i woke up to light to moderate rain bands sweeping across the Capital.......

I then drove up to Santiago where as of 12 noon, not so bad! Just periods of heavy rain.

Just curious, How long does it takes to drive in the rain from Santo Domingo to Santiago?

[Guychen_lu]

I will be there friday.( Si dios quiere). Hoping that Puerto Plata airport will not be closed. I've heard that the rain is hitting very hard on Puerto Plata.

[psriches]

Just curious, How long does it takes to drive in the rain from Santo Domingo to Santiago?The rain was off and on. So it took 2 hours as usual. I saw a beautiful rainbow.

[psriches]

I will be there friday.( Si dios quiere). Hoping that Puerto Plata airport will not be closed. I've heard that the rain is hitting very hard on Puerto Plata.Although the Northcoast got hit pretty hard last night, no worries my friend. This thing will blow over in a day or two at most!!!

[Galvin]

I was just outside and although trees/etc have been blown around the rain has stop'd and it is a lot clearer. Most likely we will probably get some remnant showers from here on out.

Hopefully I can hit the beach tomorrow.

[ErikS]

I've been in Sosua for a week now. Rainy every day, but last night was the heaviest rain and strongest winds I have ever experienced in the DR.

The condo i lease is pretty well protected from the elements, but last night most of the (inside) screens were blown off the windows, and water seeped into my kitchen.

Still raining lightly now, but I think (and the weather map confirms) that the worst is over.

I just hope Juan El Greco didn't get blown away like Dorothy from Oz. I have been looking for him at Rockys without luck!

[psriches]

- Olga update
From: carol read <carolread1945 at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2007 17:22:13 +0000 (GMT)I don't know if there is more to come as it is still very dark at midday, but last night we took a bit of a battering - 4.3 inches of rain and very strong winds with trees down and lots of leaf litter. It is cold too - 77f and the dogs won't leave their beds. Santiago is reported to be badly flooded and 7 people reported dead according to Dominican Today.

[psriches]

Schools close for Olga
The Ministry of Education has ordered all schools to close for an "indefinite" period due to Tropical Storm Olga. Deputy Education Minister Fausto Mota Garcia told reporters that he was following orders from Minister Alejandrina German, who was in Argentina yesterday. Students taking final exams were advised not to worry, as the exams will be held at the next convenient date. According to the official school calendar, schoolchildren go on Christmas vacation on 21 December. Private schools are reporting there will be classes tomorrow and that they will be closing earlier than the official date.

[psriches]

Minimal effect in tourism areas
International airports operated as normal during and after the passing of Tropical Storm Olga, with the exception of Puerto Plata's International Airport where three flights after 11pm had to be cancelled due to the high winds. Airport operations resumed in the early morning. Some damage is reported to on the beach storefronts in Cabarete, on the North Coast and Samana on the Northeast Coast but for the most part, tourism activities are expected to resume as normal as the rains move west passing the island. Hotels are not reporting any damages. Golf courses in some areas need to wait to dry out, but regular activities are expected to resume nationwide shortly.
By 10am, all tropical storm watches and warnings for the island of Hispaniola were discontinued. Light rains continue in some areas, but reports from Puerto Rico indicate that good weather is headed our way.

[psriches]

Santiago low areas under water
Latest reports indicate Santiago is the province most affected by Tropical Storm Olga. The damage was caused by the opening of the Tavera-Bao Dam floodgates, probably to prevent a dam break, at midnight without warning those in the path of flooding. This released more than 5,000 cubic meters/second of water and caused a major swelling of the Yaque del Norte River. As reported in the Listin Diario, the governor of Santiago says at least seven people died after being caught unaware. There was major flooding in low areas of the city of Santiago.
President Leonel Fernandez is expected to visit Santiago this afternoon.

http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h240/obsti/front.jpg

[El Capitan]

Santiago low areas under water
Latest reports indicate Santiago is the province most affected by Tropical Storm Olga. The damage was caused by the opening of the Tavera-Bao Dam floodgates, probably to prevent a dam break, at midnight without warning those in the path of flooding. This released more than 5,000 cubic meters/second of water and caused a major swelling of the Yaque del Norte River. As reported in the Listin Diario, the governor of Santiago says at least seven people died after being caught unaware. There was major flooding in low areas of the city of Santiago.
President Leonel Fernandez is expected to visit Santiago this afternoon.

http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h240/obsti/front.jpg

What a cluster fuck.......the COE and Leonel have no clue on what to do, nor do they care about the Dominican people....

[ChicaSeeka]

spoke with my girl tonight in San francisco de Macoris, she told me she got water in her house,from the river breaking it's banks, major flooding
must have been real bad, because that did not happen with the hurricane last month...

[psriches]

This is from weather.com Hurricane Central. What they don't say is the Government opened the flood-gates of the dam:

"The center moved across the Dominican Republic and into Haiti Tuesday night, and emerged off of the Haitian Coast in a much weaker state this morning, this evening it is down to a depression and soon remnant low overnight and is headed toward the south side of Cuba and north of Jamaica as a much weaker storm.

The bad news about Olga is that it has claimed at least 10 lives in flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Most of those killed were in mudslides in interior of parts of Dominican Republic and Haiti. One of the hardest hit areas was northern city of Santiago where a dam was breached. This is where 7 were killed in flooding and a mudslide."

[El Capitan]

spoke with my girl tonight in San francisco de Macoris, she told me she got water in her house,from the river breaking it's banks, major flooding
must have been real bad, because that did not happen with the hurricane last month...

Not bashing here....hopefully educating.

Neither Noel nor Olga were "hurricanes"...nor were they even close to CAT1 hurricanes...Noel was a weak tropical depression that became a weak tropical storm and OLGA was cold water center, low pressure system with an open core (no eye wall).

Both storms should serve as a warning to the Dominican people and to us (those that travel to the tropics). Should a real hurricane ever hit the DR (will not have to be a direct hit...just strong outer bands), the devastation will be surreal.......the government, the infrastructure and the Dominican people will not be able to sustain a direct hit. I say this from a professional stand point...rescue/recovery.

Rest assured should the island be buffeted by steady winds of 75mph or above...with the accompanying rains...many of the places we know and love woud be without roof or walls....food and water will be at a premium...the streets will flood, power lines will be down....

If you check luggage, and travel during the hurricane season perhaps you should consider packing a small straw type water filter ($10, one will filter 20 gallons) and either a couple breakfast bars, protein bars or an "emergency meal" (think one MRE)...the latter has saved me on many a day where flights were cancelled or the hour late....

Existo paratus